Yu Pingkang talks about crude oil treasure: bank responsibility needs to be merged, product risk matching needs to be standardized

Yu Pingkang talks about crude oil treasure: bank responsibility needs to be merged, product risk matching needs to be standardized
Yu Pingkang, chief financial market expert of China Insurance Association and chief economist of Kunzhi Asset Management.As countries’ measures to deal with the emotional impact of the epidemic have landed one after another, the financial markets of some advanced economies have “revived”, and market panic seems to have improved.How to assess the current state of the global financial market?What impacts and challenges does the “increased epidemic situation” have on asset allocation?How do institutions and individual investors adjust their investment strategies during special periods?Sauna Night Network recently interviewed economists and financial experts to share their thoughts and suggestions on asset allocation under the epidemic situation.In this issue, Yu Pingkang, the chief financial market expert of the China Insurance Association and the chief economist of Kunzhi Asset Management, talks with Sauna.com.Yu Pingkang worked in the economic analysis of the Federal Reserve Bank, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, and served as the chief economist of Huatai Securities, Changjiang Pension Insurance and other institutions.On the evening of April 20, US crude oil futures prices fell to -37 the day before the May WTI contract expired.$ 63 / barrel.Some investors who bought Bank of China’s “Crude Oil Treasure” had already invested their principals and faced additional debt.Regarding the “crude oil treasure” incident, Yu Pingkang believes that investors’ awareness of the risks of wealth management products needs to be improved, and at the same time, the Bank of China also has an inescapable responsibility.The essential properties of bank wealth management are low-risk. As a result, the asset side invested by “Crude Oil Treasure” is a high-risk prospect.From a policy perspective, the risk matching of products to the capital and asset sides can be further standardized and improved in the future.The bank’s responsibility needs are consistent, and the risks of wealth management products are matched to be standardized. Sauna Night Net: Recently, US crude oil futures fell to a negative value for the first time, and a “crude oil treasure” event also occurred in this context.How to treat this incident?Yu Pingkang: The “crude oil treasure” can be viewed from different perspectives, including bank professionalism, investor perspective, macro financial policy formulation perspective, and deeper employment system.Let ‘s start with the micro individual investors. There is still a lot of room for improvement in investors ‘awareness of the risks of wealth management products.Despite the introduction of the new asset management regulations, the financial industry has greatly improved its standardization, and it has just broken down.However, the investor’s risk awareness has not followed up. When purchasing financial products, they did not carefully read the contract terms and did not fully understand the full subject matter.At the same time, it is easy to believe in the salesperson’s words.Second, from the perspective of the bank, its product design itself shows a lack of professionalism.Especially on April 15th, the US CME (Chicago Commodity Exchange) has announced that the price of (some NYMEX energy futures contracts) can enter the negative range.During this time, other futures practitioners and major institutions have made adjustments, but the Bank of China has not adjusted or notified investors.In addition, from the perspective of product design, it does not allow investors to directly participate in futures investment. Bank of China is an intermediary.Moreover, investors (in the evening) cannot trade after ten o’clock, and investors cannot place orders, but the futures market is 24 hours (trading), and there are obvious agent risks during this time.Since Bank of China is an intermediary (agent), in order to earn intermediary expenses, it is necessary to bear corresponding risks.And bank sales use “crude oil treasure” as a wealth management product to sell to the public, but it is actually a high-risk futures product.From these perspectives, Bank of China itself has an inescapable responsibility.These responsibilities are not necessarily clearly stipulated in the contract terms. Some contract terms may not anticipate the new situation of market fluctuations.I believe that the final law will announce a fair judgment.Third, in terms of macro-finance policy, the incident itself also revealed many breakthroughs that could be perfected.The new regulations on asset management are mainly aimed at bank wealth management, breaking the cashing, breaking the pool of funds, and avoiding overlapping “several axes”, the entire bank wealth management has been greatly regulated.But in essence, the bank’s wealth management properties are still low-risk, mainly to meet the needs of investors’ liquidity management and value preservation, and serve low-risk priority funds.As a result, the asset side invested in this product is a high-risk asset, and futures are the assets with the highest risk attributes in almost all asset classes.The product is a channel for capital diversion, but the funds and assets are connected, but the results are not properly matched. The low-risk funds and high-risk assets are connected.From a policy perspective, the risk matching of the product to the capital and asset sides can be further standardized and improved in the future.In the end, from the perspective of the professional employment system, the financial industry is actually a very technical and refined industry. Why do many central enterprises and state-owned enterprises have frequent risk events?In essence, the employment policy is not in place.We must let professional people do professional things, and professional things must be managed by professional leaders and professional talents.It is gradually expected to start to bottom out, and it is necessary to gradually turn cash into an asset. The “crude oil treasure” event also seems to reflect that some investors have begun to come out of the short-term “cash is king” strategy, seeking more asset appreciationopportunity.Foreign epidemics are still spreading. What are your suggestions for asset allocation in special periods?Yu Pingkang: Are you going to vote out or hold cash?It is essentially a trade-off between risk and inflation.In the short term, the fluctuation of the entire market must be anti-risk, of course, “cash is king” at this time.But in the long run, there are two factors that need to be considered, one is long-term, and the other is the actual operating return, which is economic growth from a macro perspective.If the risk of rapid short-term volatility has passed, it is now seen that many industries may not rebound or recover quickly in the short term.However, the currency has begun to loosen significantly.I believe that it is time for me to reach the bottom in anticipation and start to slowly raise my head.From simply preventing risks to starting to consider the issue of anti-inflation, it means that it is necessary to gradually invest cash out into assets during this time.What is the direction of investment?It is best to be in areas that can resist revolution and have long-term performance growth. These areas need careful study.After the epidemic, I believe that the economic structure and industry structure will be adjusted.Economic growth has different rates of rebound and recovery in different sub-sectors and sub-sectors. It is necessary to make corresponding investment decisions according to different investment periods and cycles, and do not need to rush.In the final analysis, the entry into the real economy will not immediately enter all areas of the real economy after the money has been overproduced, resulting in a process of real landing.For example, the Fed over-produced 2 trillion dollars in currency. In the short term, the biggest concern for US monetary policy makers is not to cause alternative deflation.Most of the super-issued basic currency has not really entered the field of circulation, nor has it entered the process of credit currency creation.This is why we see many asset prices in the United States, such as the stock market did not immediately recover, or U-shaped bottoming process.It is not that the currency has been greatly loosened. Everyone is going to invest and resist, but over time, the effects of the stimulus policy will begin to show, that is, when expectations are expected to start to build.I believe that China expects that it will come earlier than the United States, because our entire economy has resumed to restart.Therefore, from an investment perspective, it is time to start worrying about inflation.Future investment requires more professionalism. Unlike buying a house just like Saiyeye.com: Take your sights a little longer-term. Do individual investors make some preparations for future asset allocation?Including psychological expectations?Yu Pingkang: Low interest rates will exist for a long time, it is likely to happen.In the medium to long term, holding cash is becoming increasingly uneconomical, so make investment decisions.But when the entire economy has not yet found a very clear main line of growth, blind investment is risky.Purely deoxidizing, buying gold and precious metals at a point, the growth of its value reflects inflation in the future, and the proceeds may only bring actual preservation of assets.To truly realize long-term value-added, we must definitely invest in places with operating income.I used to buy real estate.Why is real estate prices growing particularly fast?Monetary policy is the continuous issuance of currency, and reorganization is the process of urbanization combined with the business activities carried out in the space of the house to create a lot of value.If there is no human activity, the house is worthless.Now that the “housing and housing is not speculation” policy remains unchanged, the rapid urbanization process has come to an end. Different cities in different levels and different locations within the city will be differentiated. There is no very simple operation rule for future investment in residents.Not like buying a house in previous decades.Investment decisions will become more complex and require professionalism.The next five to ten years will be a stage for the development of specialized financial institutions and the financial industry.Because the wealth accumulated by the common people needs to be managed by professional people. If individuals lack financial expertise, it is increasingly difficult to make investments. This is also the same as the development process of the United States and Europe.The trend of wealth management capital and asset integration will continue for many years: the instability of the financial market has brought many challenges, but the wealth management industry has also accelerated the pace of digital upgrades.On April 21, the first single fund investment advisory business of brokerages landed, and banks and financial technology giants were all actively deploying.How do you view the future competitive direction and pattern of the wealth management industry?Yu Pingkang: The overall academic wealth management includes the fund end, product end and asset end, and the product puts funds to receive assets.In the practice of the financial industry in developing countries, wealth management companies often only absorb funds, and their investment capabilities are very weak.And various investment institutions have to rely on external sales channels such as banks and wealth management companies for financing.The capital side and the asset side are separated.Why are you so active in investment advisory business now?Because investment institutions can actively absorb funds through this role and develop their own sales channels.It is affirmed from the development trend of the industry that the integration of the asset side and the capital side is inevitable.At the beginning, everyone rushed to do the fund-end business, because the fund-end makes money easily, and the professionalism is low. As long as the money is paid, P2P and other forms have gone astray.However, after the financial market becomes more and more refined, the level of development is getting higher and higher, and the discriminating ability of investors is becoming stronger and stronger. If you simply do capital business, the space will become smaller and smaller.Therefore, the capital side should develop its own investment capabilities, and the investment side should also develop more sales channels.Sauna, Yepnet Chen Peng, editor Yue Caizhou proofreading Li Shihui